Comparisons with Japan, US, Hong Kong and Singapore housing markets for China

China housing sector development compared with Japan, US, Hong Kong and Singapore: "This report reviews the development of the housing sectors in Japan, US, Hong Kong and Singapore, focusing on the high-growth periods in those markets, in order to make comparisons with China's rapidly growing housing market. We also review housing finance systems and the nature of housing sector leverage during periods of rapid growth, and analyze the impact of specific policy measures on the development of the housing sectors in each country."
China’s housing sector faces short-term cyclical challenges but longterm outlook is robust: "China’s housing sector exhibits the pronounced cyclicality of a high-growth emerging market. Since 1998, housing values have risen almost 400x and the housing loan market has expanded 125x to become the second-largest home loan market in Asia- Pacific (after Japan)."
Policy risks appear adequately priced in China developer share prices, but timing of re-entry depends on sales momentum: "The lessons drawn from a review of the other comparative markets show that policy failures/mistakes can accentuate the cyclicality of this sector. We believe the China homebuilders already price in a substantial policy risk premium, but will consider a concerted re-entry into the China homebuilders when contract sales momentum begins to re-accelerate (toward the end of 2010 based on our expectations)."
JPMorgan Asian Property Yardstick 20100714

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