European Banks: Who's testing who?

- "The Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) will be publishing its stress tests on July 23. Following on from our indicative stress test note (“Euro zone stress test”, 18 June), we have expanded our analysis to include the Landesbanks and Cajas."
- "The most important point to make is that although it is the banking sector that is formally being tested, the real test is of the official sector itself: Given the amount of information which is available already, it is not reasonable to suppose that the stress test will provide the bank funding market with important news about intrinsic creditworthiness. The important point being tested is the ability and willingness of the official sector to provide capital to firms which fail the stress test - it is this, not the capital position of European banks, which is the subject of severe market uncertainty, in our opinion."
- "We assess the total bailout capacity of the European official sector as being potentially as much as €900bn, with €130bn available with reasonable availability and certainty:. We would regard the stress test as a “success” in so far as it demonstrates that the political, legal and administrative structures are available to provide an effective lender of last resort to the euro area banking system. Our best case would be one in which it was demonstrated that the resources of the EFSF were available to fund bank bailouts; our worst case would be one in which no evidence was given of available funding. In either case, our favoured stocks would be BNP Paribas and Santander."
CreditSuisse European Banks 20100708

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