The Greek situation in the light of the Argentine 2001 crisis

- "Many observers and analysts have compared the Greek 2010 crisis to the Argentine 2001 crisis, in an attempt to evaluate the most probable outcome. As we know, the Argentine crisis led to the country’s default."
- "For example, it has recently been argued that as the scale of Greece’s deficits and imbalances (especially budget and foreign trade deficits and the public debt ratio) are much worse than Argentina’s situation in the early 2000s, the prospect of insolvency is much higher in Greece (N. Roubini, “It is time to face reality over Greece’s debt”, Financial times, 29/06/2010)."
- "This paper will examine the similarities and differences between the two sovereign crisis, to highlight the specific nature of the Greek crisis. We believe that the probability of a Greek debt default depends primarily on the recessive spiral in which the Greek economy is mired today. At the same time, the existing differences between the two crises may help to avoid the
probability of a Greek default. In fact, the specific nature of the Greek crisis and the probable consequences of a default on the European financial system are powerful incentives to avoid this occurrence through a much-better cooperative solution than in the Argentine case."
Natixis Flash Economics 365 20100715