- Macro viewpoint: Mini me or the real Dr. Evil? "In the face of weak data and tighter financial conditions, we are switching sides in the growth debate: we now expect GDP growth to fall short of consensus expectations both this year and next. Our biggest cuts are to: consumption, housing, and inventories."
- Fed watch: Hold on "As we noted last week, the June FOMC statement cited further risks to theoutlook and downward-trending inflation, suggesting the Fed was on hold for a while. Additional soft data and more cautious tones to several Fed officials’ speeches this week help convince us that the FOMC is even further away from tightening. Hence, we have pushed our expectation of the first rate hike back from August 2011 to March 2012."
- The week ahead: Holiday hangover "It will be a relatively light week on the economic calendar. Monday the marketsare closed for the Fourth of July holiday. The biggest event on the calendar will bethe June release of the ISM non-manufacturing survey. The index is likely to decline to 54.0 after posting a 55.4 previously, consistent with moderating growth in the service sector of the economy."
Merrill Lynch US Economic Weekly 20100702
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