What are the odds of a double-dip recession?

- "The waning budget stimulus and the probable end to restocking will considerably slow down growth in the second half of 2010. But the risk of a new violent business downturn, even in light of the budget austerity plans, is limited due to the ongoing effect of monetary stimulus and the profits trend."
- "This interpretation is backed by business cycle leading indicators. We can surmise from a study of both yield curves and confidence indicators that the probability of recession in developed countries within the next twelve months is very low."
- "The likelihood of the extreme scenario of a double dip recession occurring today requires a sharp surge in market rates due to a violent shock:
• from sovereign debt, but this source of risk is nil since central banks are buying government bonds.
• by a new bank crisis, but the constitution of reserves and asset writeoffs seem to have stabilized.
• by a forex crisis, but the probability of such a crisis occurring simultaneously in all developed economies is remote"
- "In the absence of any such shock (which must be exogenous), since inflation is not a risk, we should brace ourselves for the more probable odds of very feeble growth in the major developed economies."
Natixis Flash Economics 361 20100715

No comments:

Post a Comment