India and China: New Tigers of Asia, Part III

- "The huge surplus in the working-age populations in India and China has forced the world economy to recognize the countries’ roles in the global competitive dynamic. Both markets are increasingly integral to the business strategies of multinational companies and are viewed as structural drivers for global productivity. By 2020, we forecast India’s GDP will cross the US$6trn mark while China’s will surpass US$20trn, driven by the powerful combination of favorable demographics, structural reforms, and globalization. We expect the two economies to be the dominant growth stories for the next 20 years."
- "This report is the third part of our India and China: New Tigers of Asia series. Part I, published in July 2004, assessed the long-term outlook for the two economies during a period of rapid globalization. We highlighted how the rise of India and China is the most significant economic force in the world economy and that their growing presence will continue to change the rules that underpin the structure of global manufacturing and services output."
- "In Part II, published in June 2006, we focused on the challenges the two economies faced to maintain their growth trajectories beyond the then current boom. In that report, we highlighted that India had the potential to catch up to China’s economic growth rates over a 10-year period. Indeed, India is now not far from doing so."
- "In Part III, we focus on the long-term growth outlook in India. We believe that, over the next two years, India should start matching China’s economic growth, barring another global crisis, clearly reaping the rewards of very positive demographics and an increasingly dynamic economy."
- "We will continue to see both these economic powerhouses develop and reform as their respective models or stages of growth evolve as they create wealth and see their demographics change. The drive and dynamism both these economies provide to the world has and will become ever more important as they continue to develop and engage more intricately with the global economy."
- "This report provides some terrific insights into that evolution and the longer-term comparative factors driving the success of both economies. We now increasingly have a genuine double act from China and India in terms of dynamic economic growth engines willing and enthusiastic to engage with the global economy. This can only be beneficial for the continued growth and stability of the region and the world economy as a whole."

Morgan Stanley India and China New Tigers of Asia Part III 20100813

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