- Macro viewpoint: One is the loneliest number "With two consecutive quarters with a one-handle, the US is dangerously close to a “growth recession.” Structural unemployment has increased but most of the rise in unemployment is cyclical."
- Fed watch: Ben buys time "As expected, Fed Chairman Bernanke departed from the usual script at Jackson Hole. He focused on explaining the logic behind policy rather than a specific road map. The speech buys time for the Fed to determine if the economy is weak enough to warrant action."
- Housing watch: Bringing down the house "Home sales collapsed to a new record low while inventory edged higher, widening the imbalance in the housing market. The looming shadow inventory likely will keep this gap wide."
- The week ahead: Anemic August payrolls "The overall mood of the data this week likely will be downbeat. We are only expecting +30k in private payrolls growth in August. Given the accuracy of forecasting payrolls, there is a risk that private payrolls print negative."
- Fed watch: Ben buys time "As expected, Fed Chairman Bernanke departed from the usual script at Jackson Hole. He focused on explaining the logic behind policy rather than a specific road map. The speech buys time for the Fed to determine if the economy is weak enough to warrant action."
- Housing watch: Bringing down the house "Home sales collapsed to a new record low while inventory edged higher, widening the imbalance in the housing market. The looming shadow inventory likely will keep this gap wide."
- The week ahead: Anemic August payrolls "The overall mood of the data this week likely will be downbeat. We are only expecting +30k in private payrolls growth in August. Given the accuracy of forecasting payrolls, there is a risk that private payrolls print negative."
Merrill Lynch US Economic Weekly 20100827
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