Which OECD countries will return to growth? An interpretation grid

- "In the post-crisis macroeconomic environment (brisk growth in emerging countries, determination to deleverage among companies in OECD countries), an OECD country can return to normal growth:
• if it has considerable capacity to export to emerging and commodity-exporting countries;
• if the households in this country can and want to increase their indebtedness;
• if the companies in this country, if they are faced with additional demand, have sufficient profitability to invest more;
• if the necessary reduction in fiscal deficits is not so drastic that it will kill growth."
- "The larger the number of these conditions verified by an OECD country, the more it will post vigorous growth in the next few years."
- "We apply this interpretation grid to the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Sweden, Japan and Australia. The countries where it is most likely that growth will pick up permanently are Canada, Germany, the Netherlands and Australia."

Natixis Flash Economics 386 20100729

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