The gross domestic product level must continue to be watched

- "Observers were pleased with the second-quarter growth figures for the euro zone following the good figures for the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010 in the United States and Japan. However, after a recession, because of the recovery in global trade, the end to de-stocking and highly expansionary economic policies, it is not surprising that certain quarterly growth rates are very high. What must continue to be watched is the GDP level relative to the level that would have been reached without the crisis, the shortfall in the GDP level relative to either potential GDP or trend GDP, depending on the case, which determines unemployment, investment, inflation, wage increases, fiscal deficits, etc."
- "All the countries analysed (United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, France, Spain and Italy) show a substantial shortfall in the GDP level in the second quarter of 2010. This ranges from four percentage points (Germany) to more than 10 percentage points (Spain relative to the previous trend)."

Natixis Flash Economics 412 20100825

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