Non-commercial investors turn marginally long EUR

- "The latest IMM data cover the week from 14 to 21 September."
- "JPY longs remained in place after the BoJ intervention: The intervention from Bank of Japan that sent USD/JPY from 83 to almost 86 was not enough to square long JPY positions. IMM data show that speculative JPY net longs remained in place last week, reaching 20 percent of open interest. The market looks increasingly likely to re-test the central bank as USD/JPY is gaining downside momentum."
- "Non-commercial investors turn marginally long EUR: For the first time since December last year speculative investors are net long the euro. Net long positions have reached 3 percent of open interest, as improved risk sentiment - and increased concerns about the potential effect of QEII on the dollar – has sent EUR/USD higher to trade near 1.35. IMM data indicate that there is plenty of room for a further build-up in EUR longs, although we suspect that investors will be cautious adding too much EUR exposure as long as Euroland debt uncertainties remain high."
- "Commodity currencies still vulnerable to position squaring: September’s risk rally, which has seen the S&P500 index gain almost 10%, has coincided with a further build-up of long positions in the commodity currencies. Net longs are now at 69 percent in NZD, 50 percent in AUD, and 29 percent in CAD – indicating that these high beta currencies are becoming increasingly vulnerable to a potential position unwind. A trigger for this could be a sell-off on the stock market, which our equity analysts see a high risk of over the coming months."

DenDanske IMM Positioning 20100927

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