NZD longs approaching previous highs

- "The latest IMM data covers the week from 7 to 14 September."
- "NZD longs approaching previous highs: When IMM data was collected on 14 September NZD/USD reached a 0.7395 high – this after money markets had begun pricing in monetary policy tightening again (the OIS market is now pricing 65 basis points in 12M compared with 43bp ultimo August). With NZD longs being added and shorts broadly unchanged, net long NZD positions have reached 65% of open interest. Hence, downside risks are building for NZD/USD."
- "Too little fundamental difference to see a position build-up in EUR/USD: Since the massive EUR shorts – added during the Spring Euroland fiscal crisis – were unwound during July, positioning has been fairly neutral. With upward pressure having built up in EUR/USD, shorts have been scaled back further. Net short EUR positions currently stand at just 6% of open interest – indicating limited risks from positioning."
- "IMM data collected prior to Bank of Japan intervention: The latest positioning data was collected the day before the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stepped in and intervened in the currency market for the first time since 2004. According to the IMM data, speculative investors were significantly long in JPY prior to the intervention, which helps explain its ‘success’. With the market likely to be less long in JPY now, it will – all other things being equal – be more difficult for the BoJ to prevent JPY appreciation."

DenDanske IMM Positioning 20100920

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