Towards significant growth variability in emerging and export-dependent countries?

- "Growth in domestic demand in OECD countries will in all likelihood be weak and steady, due to deleveraging, the increase in capital requirements, the rise in profitability, etc."
- "But, conversely, we can expect significant growth variability in emerging countries and in countries whose economies are export-oriented, due to:
• the high volatility in the Chinese economy, and therefore in economies linked to China;• the sharp fluctuations in the exchange rates of emerging and OECD countries, due to the instability of international capital flows and risk aversion;• the high variability of lending in emerging countries, linked to capital flows and changes in monetary policies."
- "In the future, we will probably see economies with slow and regular growth in OECD countries where domestic demand dominates (United States, United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy), and economies with very erratic growth in emerging and OECD countries linked to global trade (Germany, Japan, etc.)."

Natixis Flash Economics 463 20100916

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