What happened at end-2009 and in early 2010?

- "At end-2009 and in early 2010, there was a drastic acceleration in global trade, which contributed to a significant recovery in industrial production and overall activity in exporting countries. To ascertain whether or not there will be a marked slowdown in global trade from the second half of 2010, we have to understand the causes of its very sharp growth from end-2009.
was it due to permanent causes: economic recovery in OECD countries, sharp growth in emerging countries?
or temporary causes; restocking after the substantial destocking in the aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy?"
- "We show that in the United States, Japan, China, Asia and Latin America, imports increased much faster than what was justified by growth in demand excluding inventories, which indicates that they were linked to temporary restocking."

Natixis Flash Economics 435 20100902

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