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Russia: to build confidence

- "Of all the BRIC countries, Russia suffered most in the global recession and it seems to be seeing the slowest recovery. GDP fell by 7.9% in 2009, compared with a fall of 0.2% for Brazil and growth of 6.7% in India and 8.7% in China. In the first quarter of 2010, Russia’s GDP grew by 3% year-on-year, compared with charts of 9% in Brazil, 8.6% in India and 11.9% in China. Comparing Russia with other major oil producers in the Middle East and Africa leads to a similar conclusion."
- "This article seeks to identify the reason of this poor performance, particularly during the recovery phase. Recovery in domestic demand and a return to more ‘normal’ internal liquidity conditions both seem to be lagging relative to the improvement in the oil market and the recovery of the global economy. The crisis of confidence, with a lasting effect on consumers and businesses, appears to be playing a key role in this underperformance."
- "The first two sections of this article describe the trend in the real economy since 2008 and the effects of the financial crisis. The third section looks at the effects and limits of the fiscal stimulus policy, whilst the fourth examines monetary policy."
BNPParibas_Conjoncture_20100702

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