UK impact from EMU break-up: Double dip or depression?

- "In our recent note, “EMU Break-up: Quantifying the Unthinkable, 7 July 2010”, we looked at the global impact of a break-up of the Eurozone. In this report we discuss the potential impact of such a scenario on the UK. Given the level of trade and financial linkages, a major adverse reaction is inevitable. Should complete break-up occur, the economic and financial impact will be far greater than seen in the recent recession. Output might fall by 8% relative to our base case within the first two years. Under this scenario, talk of depression could quickly reignite."
INGBank Financial Markets Research 20100715

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