Current Accounts and Demographics: The Road Ahead

- "Demographics are a major determinant of long-term current account trends."
- "Countries with a high proportion of ‘prime savers’ (those aged between 35 and 69) are more likely to run current account surpluses."
- "We show how demographic shifts have influenced global current account trends in the past 30 years, and what they imply for the next 20 years and beyond."
- "We have seen some rebalancing from the extremes in 2008 but the process is not yet complete."
- "Demographic shifts point to a cleaner split between emerging markets (mostly in surplus) and developed markets (mostly in deficit) in the future than is evident in the current, more complicated picture."
- "Emerging markets (EM) could continue to lend to developed markets (DM) on average."
- "Demographic forces may help keep global real rates low."
- "The development of EM capital markets may be important in offsetting demographic pressures for capital flows from the EM to the DM world."

GoldmanSachs Global Economics Paper 20100812

No comments:

Post a Comment