The impact of structural challenges to growth in advanced economies

- "The current debate between the proponents of austerity measures and those who favour additional stimulus is largely irrelevant because most of the socio-economic problems faced by advanced industrial countries are structural rather than cyclical."
- "Increased global competition, de-industrialization and a loss of control over innovation have undermined the ability of advanced industrial economies to sustain "normal" or historical levels of economic growth."
- "We believe a combination of structural long-term debt, deteriorating demographics, a backlash against immigration, spending cuts and stagnating incomes will lead to political gridlock and instability in developed economies, further undermining efforts to deal with slow economic growth."
- "The current global economic and political situation increases the likelihood of protectionism and trade tensions."
- "Economic power and geopolitical power are inextricably linked. We believe the decline in the geopolitical clout of advanced countries will carry negative implications for economic growth. Conversely, economic growth in developing countries will benefit from theirexpanding sphere of influence."
- "Investors have to be mindful of the increasing disconnect between economic growth and market performance at the national level."
- "Investment conclusions: Emerging markets will continue to outperform developed markets; U.S. markets will outperform most other advanced economies; Indian markets will outperform Chinese markets; Latin American investments are favoured over African ones; Commodities will outperform, as will investments geared to global mega-trends."

NBC Global Investment Implications August 2010

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