Don’t blame claims - It’s more about hiring

- "Although loss of jobs, as reflected in initial jobless claims, remains at elevated levels, it is the other side of the labor market coin - the lack of hiring - that largely accounts for the “recession feeling” in the job market."
- "Initial claims peaked in March 2009 and have been trending down gradually since then. Compared to the experience following two earlier severe recessions (1973-75 and 1981-82), the current pace of decline has been near enough to the speed recorded in the 1973-75 recession, but moving much slower than that experienced in the 1981-82 recession. Compared to the two jobless recoveries in the early 1990s and 2000s, initial claims have declined at a faster pace."
- "This is further confirmed by the June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released yesterday. Although the layoff and discharge rates edged up slightly in June, they are not that far from the pre-crisis levels. In contrast, the hires rate remains at depressed levels and is much lower than the average rate recorded in the expansion between December 2001 and December 2007 (4.4%)."
- "In short, businesses need to hire more boldly to make the recovery self-sustaining and to bring the jobless rate down at anything near a satisfactory pace."

CreditSuisse US Economics Digest 20100812

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