JPY positioning indicates little belief in BoJ intervention

- "The latest IMM data covers the week from 3 August to 10 August."
- "The collapse in US interest rates has driven USD/JPY to a new cyclical low of 84.73 and brought renewed speculation about the potential for intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, non-commercial positioning does not indicate that the market is placing that much confidence in the probability of a scenario of imminent and successful intervention. Rather net long JPY positions were built further to reach 38% of open interest – the highest level since December last year when net longs peaked at 39%."
- "Despite the dollar beginning to recover by 10 August, non-commercial investors added further to net short US dollar positions – which reached USD18.7bn. Recent strong dollar performance is likely to have seen part of the dollar shorts being unwound, although we continue to view risks as skewed to the upside for the dollar should further position squaring be triggered."
- "Speculative positions remain neutral in EUR/USD leaving limited positioning risk on the air at present."
- "Recent underperformance by the NZD, seeing AUD/NZD trade back above 1.26, has coincided with speculative investors trimming long NZD positions. Even so, positioning remains stretched in the commodity currencies AUD, CAD and NZ."

DenDanske IMM Positioning 20100816

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