China’s 12th Five-Year Plan: rewriting the social contract?

- "The Chinese government is scheduled to review and adopt the 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP) this October. We preview the key contents that will likely be included in the 12th FYP, and their impact on different sectors and stocks":
• "Structural adjustments taking centre stage: Three major topics will likely dominate the 12th FYP: 1) income distribution reforms, 2) urbanisation and provision of public services (public housing could be the key point), and 3) CO2 emission reduction and proposals for a greener economy."
• "Key themes for the next few years: 1) Consumption will take the lead to drive the economy; 2) industry relocation, urbanisation and the 'green drive' will keep investment growth reasonably strong; and 3) financial disintermediation."
• "15 stocks to play the structural trend: We believe the following stocks should provide relatively good returns with a three- to five-year view on the structural development of China: CCCC, China Life, China Merchants Bank, China Vanke, Citic Securities, CR Gas, Delta Electronics, Hengan, Sany Heavy, Sany International, Shangri-la, Synnex, Tencent, Weichai and Wilmar."

CreditSuisse China Market Strategy 20100901

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