Finally somewhat positive US macro-economic news

- "Following some weeks of disappointing US macro-economic data, last week’s figures took away short-term double-dip fears somewhat. Consequently, investor appetite for risk improved markedly: government bonds fell and equity markets rose sharply (p.2, p.3 & p.4)."
- "This week’s focus is on German industrial production figures on Wednesday, and on the BoE meeting on Thursday (p.2, p.3 & p.4)."
- "The Chart of the Week shows the ‘official’ unemployment rate and the U6 unemployment rate (i.e. which includes: total unemployed + discouraged and marginally attached workers + total employed part-time workers for economic reasons) in the United States. Last weeks figures showed that non-farm payrolls fell for a 2nd consecutive month by 54k in August. However, as the headline figures are affected by Census related layoffs, financial markets were especially interested in the change in private payrolls. Encouragingly, private non-farm payrolls rose by 67k in August after 107k in July. Nonetheless, this increase has to be seen in the context of a loss of about 8.5mn jobs in the January 2008-December 2009 period. The only 733k jobs that have been ‘created’ since January are clearly not enough to push down the unemployment rate significantly. True, the unemployment rate has come down from its peak of 10.1% in October 2009 to 9.6% in August, but the Chart of the Week shows that the unemployment rate is still very high from a historical perspective. And also the U6 unemployment rate is still ‘sky-high’. Labour market conditions are thus far from good and another deterioration of conditions may lead to a next round of QE. However, last week’s figures showed that no additional QE should be expected in the short-term."

NIBC Markets Roundup 20100906

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