Latin America: different recovery cycles

- "While Peru maintains a high growth rate (above expectations), in Brazil the data for 2Q10 shows that the economy continues growing at a high pace, though lower than 1Q10. The Central Bank of Brazil kept its policy rate at 10.75%. There was a setback to confidence among manufacturers in Mexico as a result of worse news about the US, while consumer confidence remained stable. In Peru, consumers’ confidence dropped to neutral levels due to concerns about inflation. In Argentina and Mexico, tax revenues have been boosted by value added tax. Unemployment has increased in Colombia, signaling a weakening of the labor market, while in Chile it fell, supported by the strong growth of economic activity and employment."
- "Perceptions of global risk are having a negative effect on financial markets, but this depends on the degree of exposure to the global cycle and local factors."
- "There is a positive differential in the currencies of Brazil and Chile, relative stability in the case of Colombia, Peru and Argentina, and a negative differential in the Mexican peso. The prospects for higher growth in the region with respect to other parts of the world have led to stock markets performing relatively better."

BBVA Latin Weekly Observatory 20100903

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