China: Real Estate Outlook

- "Building on BBVA’s first Real Estate Outlook on China last year, this edition updates developments and policiesin the residential property sector, including an evaluation of recentprice trends against fundamentals and a comparison ofinternational experience with housing price bubbles."
- "Property prices in China have continued to rise sharply over the past year. While the magnitude of China’s housing price increases is not particularly large in comparison to international experience at this stage, the authorities have taken early action to cool the market in order to maintain housing affordability and to forestall destabilizing price bubbles. The measures have resulted in a sharp fall in sales transactions and a moderation in price increases."

- "According to our estimates, housing prices over thepast year in the major first tier cities have outpaced the rise in equilibrium values for housing. This raises the likelihood of further near-term adjustments in the housing market, including a downward correction in prices."

- "Over the medium term, however, prospects for China’s property market are bright given rapid income growth, high rates of urbanization, and favorable demographics."

BBVA China Real Estate Outlook 2010

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