Reading Macro Themes from Equity Markets

- "As the second half of 2010 unfolds and we survey the uncertain macroeconomic outlook
ahead, it is especially important to listen closely to the macro messages from financial markets. The macro outlook that is implicitly priced by various asset markets is an
important input into our macro and market views, and helps us to better understand the
tactical macro landscape."
- "Fixed income and FX markets have traditionally been most comfortable with this type of macro conversation. But we have found that the equity market—although less straightforwardly macro—has a potentially rich set of information that can be mined for
its macro content. Over the last several years, aided by our Wavefront models, we have
developed a ‘vocabulary’ around the equity market and its pricing of macro risks."
- "We are also launching today the International Macro Equity Monitor (IMEM), a short weekly publication presenting metrics based on our suite of Wavefront models, which aims to explain the interplay between macroeconomic forces and equity market dynamics both at the industry level within the US equity market and globally across a wide range of country-level
- "Turning to the current state of affairs, as the Global Markets group has discussed recently,
the most salient and emerging feature of the macro landscape has been the turn in the global cycle, as accelerating growth has given way to a bit of a slowdown. Cyclical equities in the US and Europe have reflected this as equity market growth views have been downgraded sharply. Given this, it is striking that global growth views in the equity market are more resilient, and (outside of China) EM outperformance is a re-emerging theme."
GoldmanSachs Global Economics Weekly 20100707

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