- Macro viewpoint: Recession? Probably not "We explore a number of potential indicators of a future downturn by estimating a series of recession probability models. These catalog the ability of one or more indicators to accurately signal recessions in the past, and then ask what chance of a near-term recession they predict today. These simple and oft-used models can help to identify not only how strongly some indicators point toward a possible double dip, but also which suffer from limited accuracy or false positives."
- Fed watch: Fade the hawks … still "One recurring theme over the past year has been the outsized voice of the more hawkish FOMC members relative to their voting clout. This week was no exception, with three different members – but only one voter – expressing their displeasure with some aspect of current or prospective Fed policy. So, let us repeat a core message once again: fade the hawks on the FOMC."
- The week ahead: Core retail sales up; inflation subdued "Next week brings with it the inflation trifecta: import prices, producer prices, and consumer prices. Of those three measures we give the most weight to consumer prices and we are expecting goose-eggs on the headline and core measures. On Wednesday, retail sales data are released for June. While we expect a negative print on the headline, the core retail control measure, which provides us with a better sense of the trend in consumer spending, is expected to post a respectable 0.3% MoM gain."
Merrill Lynch US Economic Weekly 20100709
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