- The Citi LEI continues to fall, signaling slower growth ahead — "Our LEI leads the
OECD index by 5 months, suggesting that the period of sluggish growth isn't over yet. Our index has fallen further only 50% of the time when it has reached these levels, making a strong call either way difficult."
- Current Citi LEI reading vs. historical context — "Historically when our LEI reaches
these levels, growth has been in the low teens, EPS growth is in the high single digits and export prices have been negative. This would signify a reasonable change from current growth rates and price levels."
- China and Korea respond fastest to a turn in the Citi LEI — "Because of this, both
have suffered bigger negative earnings revisions than others – they keep falling for the whole region. We retain our view that Aug/Sept will see the worst of the earnings revisions and hence market performance."
Citigroup Asia Ex Strategy 20100728
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