- A shift from storing crude oil at sea to on land… "Last Thursday’s weekly petroleum status report from the US Department of Energy (DOE) reported a 7.3 million barrel build in US crude oil inventories. The driver of this build was a surge in US crude oil imports, which reached 11.15 million b/d. However, we do not expect this level of imports to be sustained as we believe it was driven by both a push to unload tankers ahead of the arrival of Tropical Storm Bonnie and the release of crude oil from floating storage following the decline in the carry in the forward curve. We would suspect that while there likely has been significant
unloading of floating storage in the US Gulf Coast recently, the reported decline of 13.9 million barrels likely captures some changes in oil in transit. Nevertheless, the rapid unloading of floating storage is consistent with the significant weakening of the contango in WTI prices."
- … And bringing oil ashore ahead of Tropical Storm Bonnie… "The high import number also likely reflects some oil shipments ahead of schedule before the arrival of Topical Storm Bonnie, which threatened to disrupt oil shipments in the gulf region from Friday July 23 onwards. Bonnie also subsequently led to a cumulative oil production loss of 2.7 million barrels, which we expect to be felt in the coming week’s DOE reports."
- …But underlying US demand remains firm "The underlying US demand for oil remains quite strong, and has climbed to 19.8 million b/d. We estimate this is the highest post recession demand number so far, as the strong demand data in May has been revised down by the US department of Energy."
unloading of floating storage in the US Gulf Coast recently, the reported decline of 13.9 million barrels likely captures some changes in oil in transit. Nevertheless, the rapid unloading of floating storage is consistent with the significant weakening of the contango in WTI prices."
- … And bringing oil ashore ahead of Tropical Storm Bonnie… "The high import number also likely reflects some oil shipments ahead of schedule before the arrival of Topical Storm Bonnie, which threatened to disrupt oil shipments in the gulf region from Friday July 23 onwards. Bonnie also subsequently led to a cumulative oil production loss of 2.7 million barrels, which we expect to be felt in the coming week’s DOE reports."
- …But underlying US demand remains firm "The underlying US demand for oil remains quite strong, and has climbed to 19.8 million b/d. We estimate this is the highest post recession demand number so far, as the strong demand data in May has been revised down by the US department of Energy."
GoldmanSachs Energy Weekly 20100802
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