- "The value of financial assets held in retirement systems and accounts is derived from the expected future income generated by labor and capital. Thus, a slowing growth rate of the labor force can make the value of assets – and the luxury of a retirement itself – less likely. In fact, theory suggests rates of return on capital fall faster than labor income when the available labor supply slows."
- "The CBO notes that a slower-growing working age population should lower potential asset returns, but this might be made up for by greater deficit spending which would generate higher real interest rates. Higher interest rates generated this way appear inconsistent with fully comparable rising returns for risk assets (while also implying a drop in market prices)."
- "Even at low interest rates, the growth of age-triggered entitlement spending implies a crowding out of private investment, lowering potential growth."
- "In the current context, an unsustainable long-term fiscal course might make desirable short-run countercyclical policies less possible."
- "While there is still substantial room for reform, policies that imply and support an ever larger share of life in retirement might even threaten broader financial stability. In the end, there is little recourse but “more work” for many, if not most, even if our political process fails to acknowledge this now."
Citigroup_Monday_Morning_Comments_20100830
- "The CBO notes that a slower-growing working age population should lower potential asset returns, but this might be made up for by greater deficit spending which would generate higher real interest rates. Higher interest rates generated this way appear inconsistent with fully comparable rising returns for risk assets (while also implying a drop in market prices)."
- "Even at low interest rates, the growth of age-triggered entitlement spending implies a crowding out of private investment, lowering potential growth."
- "In the current context, an unsustainable long-term fiscal course might make desirable short-run countercyclical policies less possible."
- "While there is still substantial room for reform, policies that imply and support an ever larger share of life in retirement might even threaten broader financial stability. In the end, there is little recourse but “more work” for many, if not most, even if our political process fails to acknowledge this now."
Citigroup_Monday_Morning_Comments_20100830
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