Leading Indicator Still Falling; Look for a Bottom in Aug/Sept

- The Citi LEI continues to fall, signaling slower growth ahead — "Our LEI leads the
OECD index by 5 months, suggesting that the period of sluggish growth isn't over yet. Our index has fallen further only 50% of the time when it has reached these levels, making a strong call either way difficult."
- Current Citi LEI reading vs. historical context — "Historically when our LEI reaches
these levels, growth has been in the low teens, EPS growth is in the high single digits and export prices have been negative. This would signify a reasonable change from current growth rates and price levels."
- China and Korea respond fastest to a turn in the Citi LEI — "Because of this, both
have suffered bigger negative earnings revisions than others – they keep falling for the whole region. We retain our view that Aug/Sept will see the worst of the earnings revisions and hence market performance."
Citigroup Asia Ex Strategy 20100728

Ireland: Cyclical rebound begins, structural problems remain

- "The Irish economy returns to growth, driven by a cyclical upturn in exports, though domestic demand remains weak.""
- "GDP expected to increase by 0.75% in 2010, before growing by 3.5% in 2011, as the recovery in domestic demand picks up pace."
- "Structural problem of overindebtedness remains and household deleveraging and
Government retrenchment will remain key themes for the next few years."
- "Unemployment is also expected to remain high as the economy restructures to a smaller
construction sector, although emigration of foreign migrants will ease transition."
DenDanske Irish Economic Outlook 20100726

Correlation, Correlation everywhere, but not a drop to sell…

- "Equity correlation is close or higher than its high levels scaled during the credit crisis. This has profound implications even for non-derivatives investors in that it indicates that stock-picking skills are less useful in the current environment."
- "While much of the variation in equity correlation is driven by equity volatility, from a long term perspective it appears to have had a secular increase in value."
- "Since 2005, equity correlation has had a close relationship with the increased ETF volumes relative to the volumes in the underlying stocks."
- "Option implied correlation, which has traditionally traded at a premium to realized, is currently trading at a discount which would indicate that the option market is loathe to believe that the current high correlation is likely to persist. However, the fact that long dated implied correlation is also equally high and almost equal to its short dated version appears to provide a conflicting signal."
Barclays Index Volatility Weekly 20100726

Turnabout is fair play

- "Western Europe accelerates into midyear displaying surprising resilience"
- "The global disinflationary trend remains intact"
- "European banks pass the stress test with considerable public sector support"
- "With EM Asia on track to slow to trend, Japan is likely to follow"
JPMorgan Global Data Watch 20100723

China 2H10 Outlook: Policy’s Bottomed, So Will the Market

- Equity market near the bottom "Policy headwinds that had caused turbulence in the market are finally settling, along with downward trending economic growth. Policy overhangs and a growth slowdown are key downside risks in 2H."
- Signs of market stabilization "Macro indicators in general are supportive for the market. The margin squeeze has probably reversed softening commodity prices, currency appreciation, and still elevated CPI inflation. Liquidity stretch is likely near its end. Economic slowdown is a risk, but often lagging the market. We expect growth to bottom in 4Q this year or 1Q next year."
- Market trend "The Shanghai A-share market has tested the 2200-2500 range recently as expected. The market may remained mixed in the near term before a liquidity rally is formed. We expect the Shanghai A-share index to touch the range of 2800-3100 before year-end, likely outperforming the H-share market in the second half of the year."
- Sectoral preference "The market will likely remain selective. In general, we overweight consumer, insurance, transportation, healthcare, autos, techs, and electrical machinery & equipment, while we underweight property, banks, and materials."
- Multi-Strategy: Support for China market "1) HSCEI has remained flat since mid-
May 2010, 2) Liquidity should ease, 3) Rates curve suggests little hikes, 4) HSCEI IVOL term structure shows the market is expected to be less volatile going forward, and 5) the USD rally appears to be over."
Citigroup China Equity Strategy 20100726

Using CAPE to place a 'through-cycle' value on Asian markets and sectors

- "We are often asked the question of are markets cheap or expensive at the moment. The answer of course depends on what earnings metric is used."
- "The problem with using forecast earnings for the region right now is that they quite simply look too high. They are currently higher than when they peaked in ’08 and the outlook implied by aggregate notional earnings right now is that earnings will be greater next year than ever before – has the earnings outlook really ‘never been better’?"
- "But if we turn to use historical earnings for our market PE, then we are going to be using numbers that are rather depressed by recent trend standards – biasing valuations to look more expensive."
- "An alternative is to use a Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE, as first written about by Graham & Dodd some 70 years ago) which use an average of actual earnings typically over the prior 10 years."
- "A 10-year CAPE currently is at about the same level that we get using a ‘low-cycle’ regression basis and is arguably best used to remove the exaggerated ‘bubble period’ for earnings in and around 2008."
- "We suspect that the through-cycle earnings for Asia are in fact somewhere between the 5-year and 10-year averages and have valued countries and sectors in the region accordingly."
- "On this basis we flag the cheap and expensive countries and sectors summarised in the table to the right."
JPMorgan Cyclically Adjusted Valuations 20100727

China Interbank Liquidity Monitor

- PBoC withdrew liquidity last week: "After eight consecutive weeks’ (since late May) liquidity injection, totaling Rmb957bn, the PBoC drained Rmb101bn of net liquidity from the market last week (Exhibit 1)."
- Light redemption pressures explained the net withdrawal: "The PBoC issued Rmb125 bn of bills (Rmb45 bn of 1-year bills last Tuesday and Rmb80 bn of 3-month bills last Thursday), substantially below the issuance (Rmb240 bn) of the week before last. Much
lighter redemption pressure (Rmb39 bn last week vs. Rmb190 bn in the week before last) resulted in a net liquidity withdrawal of Rmb86 bn from bill issuance last week (Exhibit 3). Meanwhile, the PBoC sold Rmb50 bn of 91-day repo. Given Rmb35 bn of matured repo, the
PBoC drained a further Rmb15 bn of liquidity from repo operations. The reference yields of 3-month and 1-year PBoC bills remained unchanged at 1.57% and 2.093%, respectively (Exhibit 4). Largely bound by the reference yield of the 3-month bill rate, the 91-day repo rate stayed constant at 1.57% as well (Exhibit 6)."
- Further easing liquidity: "Interbank liquidity has continued to ease, with the 1-month SHIBOR sliding to 2.301% from the recent peak at 4.053% (Exhibit 2). This noticeable correction may have reflected the following factors: 1) liquidity injection by the PBoC; 2) completion of mid-year inspection on loan/deposit ratio; and 3) possible return of capital inflows."
- What’s next: "Given the relatively light redemption pressures, the scale of bill issuance and repo sales should be modest in the coming weeks (Exhibit 7). In light of the improved market liquidity situation, we expect the PBoC to continue with mild liquidity drainage in coming weeks to help stabilize the money market rates."
Morgan Stanley China Economics 20100726

A Rocky Road Towards Asia FX Appreciation

- Asia FX in a range: NT negative headwinds are offset by other (4) factors — "With market/Asian CBs adjusting for slower growth momentum, and no real catalyst to reverse sentiment, we think near-term (NT) headwinds for Asian FX will remain high. However, the presence of medium-term support factors should help provide offsetting bids to Asia FX, translating to more meaningful appreciation once double-dip fears ease and risk stabilizes."
- No 1#: Asia’s strong public finances support debt-related capital inflows —
"Inflows into Asian credits and LC bonds have been very resilient despite periods of risk aversion, and these trends should continue. Asia’s fiscal and external liquidity trends should remain relatively solid, prompting more upward ratings momentum (e.g. CH, HK, ID, IN (LC rating), and SL) vs. downgrade momentum in Europe."
- No 2#: Positive and rising rate differentials should be supportive of Asian FX —
"Asian CBs will likely continue to gradually de-link from the Fed given growth dynamics, lack of deflationary forces, unimpaired financial sector (credit growth still picking up in IN, ID, MY, SG, and TW), and bias by some CBs to use monetary policy to address asset bubbles. China is an exception - we now expect no hike this year."
- No 3#: Asia growth outperformance should continue to boost capital flows —
"While growth momentum in the Asia region is slowing, relative growth differential vs. rest of the world is unlikely to meaningfully change – net direct investment to the region is forecast to recover significantly this year, while inflows into EM funds (vs. developed markets) have remained resilient."
- No 4#: Asia FX undervaluation persists as external surpluses to grow — "Asia’s
official FX reserves are still close to their historic highs (despite revaluation loss on EUR in May) and will likely resume their climb in 2H 2010. Cost/risks of suppressing currencies will likely rise over time and pressure on China towards faster RMB appreciation is unlikely to cease."
- Macro Strategy — "1) Asia FX – we prefer IDR (high carry, low vol), KRW (cheap) and remove long SGDMYR (SGD at topside of the NEER band); 2) Asia rates – see some room for curve flattening in Indonesia; 3) Asia (sovereign) credits – look for opportunities to go long Sri Lanka$ amid expectations of new supply as a catch-up play vs. the strong rally in Indon$ and ROP$s."
Citigroup Asia Macro Strategy Outlook 20100723

The global air transport sector – emerging like a phoenix from the ashes

- "The image of phoenix, the mythical bird that burns to ashes and then re-emerges again and again, has already been cited frequently and is therefore undoubtedly far from original. It does, however, perfectly describe recent developments in the global air transport sector. After all, the industry has recovered from its severe crisis with impressive speed, is posting high growth rates once again and has in the meantime even broken previous traffic volume records. Nevertheless, not all is rosy in the garden as the aviation sector continues to face serious problems despite the economic upturn."
DeutscheBank Talking Point 20100726

Readings

'Systemic risk' theory gains in stature as way to prevent the next bubble - WaPo
Marc Faber: Sit Still, This Is Going to Hurt - Motley Fool
Cash as the real real option, to do anything - Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
Cash piles - Free Exchange
Analysis: New safe-haven currencies shine amid debt fears - Reuters
Temp Jobs Gain as Uncertainty Reigns - Wall Street Journal
The folly of the anti-stimulus consensus - Guardian
The Budget Deficit Chicken Hawks - Truthout
Is America facing an increase in structural unemployment? - Economist
New autoworkers make half as much as veterans in same plant - WaPo
The political genius of supply-side economics - FT Wolfexchange

European Banks Stress Tests: Delight in Details, Headlines Underwhelm

- Headlines vs. Details – "CEBS Stress Tests were announced 23 July. The headlines – number of weak banks (7 out of 91), capital deficit (€3.5 billion), definition of capital (Tier 1 not equity Tier 1), stress of the trading book only for government bonds – are underwhelming. But positives are in the details: CEBS provided a lot of data, in a systematic way, including on banks' sovereign exposures. And aggregate credit loss assumptions and pre-provision profits look sensible."
- Winners & Losers – "Looking at the change in Tier 1 capital ratios between the reported 2009 and the 2011 stressed result, the best performing big banks are from the UK, Spain and the Nordic region. Barclays leads the large caps, with Santander and BBVA high up in the table. Nordea, Intesa, Lloyds and BNP Paribas round out the large caps in the top quartile. If we use absolute stressed Tier 1 levels, the UK and Nordic banks again feature at the top of the table. And French are best of the Euro area."
- Stressing Sovereign Risks – "One obvious omission in the CEBS test is that it explicitly only considers sovereign shocks in the trading book. But the data on sovereign exposure provided by CEBS allows us to carry out our own stress test: capital deficit increases to €15 billion at 24 banks. If we were to use a 6% equity Tier 1 ratio (which is harsher that the US tests’ 6% T1 and 4% equity T1) the capital deficit rises to €63 billion. Note that six of the 91 banks did not give us their sovereign exposures, all from Germany, including Deutsche Bank."
- Sensible Assumptions on Credit, PPP – "While the macro-economic assumptions do not appear to be too tough, the credit loss assumptions do seem sensible. A stressed loss assumption of about double our 2010-11 base case forecast and more in-line with the c4ppt GDP drop in 2009 than the less than c1ppt cumulative drop assumed for 2010-11 stressed. And the aggregate CEBS stressed loss number is almost identical to our early June stress test of a dozen Euro banks. Similarly, CEBS' aggregate stressed pre-provision profit for these dozen banks is almost identical to our modelling."
- Rallying Into The Release – "Euro Area bank stocks are up c25% from their early June lows, while bank credit, as measured by iTraxx indices, have recovered about two-thirds of their sell-off during 2Q10. The positive recent momentum may be reinforced by the CEBS Stress Test release, especially due to the positives on information and transformation. We would look to Euro area stocks which have been laggards ytd and score well in the CEBS test, such as SocGen, Intesa and BBVA (all down c25% despite the recent bounce). Others are up more sharply recently, such as the Greeks, mid-cap Spanish and Santander, where we would
worry more about travelling and arriving."
Citigroup European Banks Stress Tests 20100726

Don't knock the Stress Test, but capital raising opportunity missed

- "The CEBS stress test result is of limited value to us as expected by the market. However, it offers new input data transparency especially on sovereign risk exposure - this is positive. Hence, with CEBS data we are able to build a JPMC Acid Test for 35 banks incl. banking book
sovereign haircut with 13 out of 35 banks falling below core T1 6% in 2011E with €8.7bn capital deficit without adjusting for €35bn of gov’t support."
- "However, the CEBS stress test is also an opportunity missed, as EU member states could have encouraged banks to raise equity i) as core Tier I ratio remains low at 7.4% 2011E in our JPMC Acid Test, and ii) to demonstrate to the debt investor ability to access the equity capital markets."
- "Why do we equity holders need happy bank debt investors? The missed equity capital raising opportunity becomes even more relevant when focusing on the upcoming material refi calendar with €245bn senior debt refi remaining (35%) compared to total 2010 €707bn outstanding FY2010 senior refi. Senior debt redemptions remain high in Eurobanks at close to €690bn in each year 2011 and 2012. In addition, within the covered bond market we have €162bn refi remaining or 36% this year."
- "Time for bank differentiation post CEBS stress test: It is interesting to witness the credit market differentiating between quality of issuer whereas Eurobanks are mainly clustered close to 1.0x 2011E NAV. We expect CoE differentiation to start to take place slowly among banks with i) well capitalized banks re-valuing to over 1.0x, and ii) high cashflow generative
banks with low P/pre-provision profits to outperform. The CEBS Stress Test is on a static balance sheet, resulting in material RWAs due to credit migration increases, which is conservative, and helpful in our analysis to differentiate between bank valuations."
- "Within the Eurobanks our preference is for IB geared private banks over credit banks with Fixed Income rates volatility high, low sovereign and traditional credit risk exposure compared to traditional banks with ongoing concern and uncertainty in respect to European traditional credit provision run-rate in 2011E. Within credit banks we prefer high cashflow
pre-provision banks with preference for non-EU exposure. Hence our top picks are: CSG, UBS, DnBNor, HSBC, UCI, SG. We remain cautious on Spanish Banks."
JPMorgan European Banks 20100726

Happy now?: Four questions on the European banks’ stress test

- Question 1: Will the sector bounce strongly? "The US bank sector surged 70% around
the time of its stress test, but we do not think Europe will follow suit. The US stress test proved the catalyst for massive equity recapitalisations, coincided with an economic recovery, and was performed on a sector trading one-third below its long-run valuation. We believe the July 2010 European stress test is unlikely to lead to any meaningful capital raising, was released at a time of growing economic uncertainty, and has been conducted on a sector trading within 10% of its long-run valuation."
- Question 2: Is the test credible? "We give a qualified “yes”. Two year loan losses of 3.6%
represent 30-year highs for the sector but are dwarfed by the US’s 9% stressed level. Whilst such comparisons can be misleading, there does appear to be more individual bank “wiggle room” for European banks, which we see as disappointing. In addition, pre-provision profit assumptions feel optimistic. There are substantial differences by country; in Spain, for example, the assumption is for a cumulative decline in commercial property prices of 55%, yet for just 7% in Greece. This may reflect an element of delayed recognition in Spain. The absence of testing for full sovereign default is understandable, but new disclosure allows investors to conduct their own stress test."
- Question 3: Who was the stress test done for? "Our view is not for us in equities, but for the debt markets. Whilst the US test last year was conducted in the shadow of nationalisation risk, this test was prompted by a renewed funding crisis. Indeed shareholders’ equity has not even been tested. So what is the debt market likely to make of it? We see a “cautious welcome” as the likely view."
- Question 4: Will funding costs come down? "This is perhaps the key question. To the
extent that the market feared what it did not know, the full sovereign risk disclosure is likely to be a positive. However, much of the sector’s funding pressure is, in our view, structural: too many balance sheets (banks and sovereigns) chasing too few funds. With or without a stress test, Europe’s banks still have €1.5trn of debt maturing by 2012, as well as the need to repay over €500bn to central banks. Well-capitalised banks with limited exposure to SGIIP (Spain, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal) sovereigns, such as HSBC and BNP Paribas, should continue to be best placed to benefit. Of the big caps in Europe, BBVA appears to us the weakest positioned. We suspect structurally higher overall funding costs – and the differential in costs among banks – are set to remain."
Barclays Equity Research 20100726

European bank stress test results: A systemic positive, despite the oversights

- "We were biased to being long risk going into the tests: expectations were low, worst-case capital holes could, in our view, be filled within the scope of existing facilities, transparency would be a major positive, and weak banks would be forced to recapitalize. We believe the tests fell short in many respects, but we nevertheless have a positive view of the outcome. On the one hand, the tests exceeded expectations concerning disclosure of sovereign bond holdings. The majority of banks should be able to fund more cheaply. On the other hand, the tests were not stringent enough. Investors will perceive the banks that barely passed to be
undercapitalized; we expect poor spread performance from those names and they are likely to continue to face high funding costs."
- "In our view, the positives (creation of transparency) outweighs the negatives (too little forced capitalization). The majority of European financial risk in credit indices has been issued by banks that cleared the tests by a wide margin, where capitalization is not a concern, and where transparency is a key positive. The risk to our view is that, while systemic fears are likely to subside, the soft-handedness of the stress tests are likely to leave concerns over the capitalisation of some specific institutions – and that these idiosyncratic problems become so large that they overwhelm the systemic benefits."
Barclays Credit Research 20100726

First look at 2012

- Looking out to 2012 "We expect the global recovery to continue in 2012 and for the pace of growth to pick up."
- United States Further out: a brighter outlook "Near term there is some weakness but beyond the year ahead we see stronger growth."
- Europe The slow and hazardous road to recovery "Ongoing financial market tensions and restraining effects of fiscal consolidation are why."
- Japan Lowering forecasts "We now see 2011 growth of 1.5%, given increasingly difficult conditions for exporters."
- Asia Rebalancing in 2011-12 "We see strong domestic-led growth, with China growing more than 10% again in 2012."
- LatAm: Strong growth set to continue "We see growth in 2012 returning to trend after a weaker 2011."
- United States Understanding the ECRI "The ECRI index is signaling recession, other leading indicators are not. We explain why."
- United States Forecast dispersion and data surprises "For some indicators the dispersion of consensus forecasts contains information."
- South Korea Policy remains accommodative "We expect the BOK to keep hiking rates gradually, reaching 4% by H1 2012."
Nomura Global Weekly Economic Monitor 20100723

Rates De-stress as Summer Begins?

- "Yet US rates still head into month-end with a tight & low range?"
- "It now appears that the consensus has come around to our view that rates, especially at the front end, could remain anchored for some time and that a further flattening of the curve is likely."
- "The summer doldrums seem to be fast approaching with the Fed and the EU stress tests now out of the way, leaving the search for themes tougher than ever. Our core view hasn’t changed and the slow pace of the next few months should keep our central themes intact."
Nomura Rates Radar 20100723

It’s not for a lack of US demand

- The ongoing US inventory build is not for a lack of US oil demand "US petroleum products inventories built for the seventh consecutive week, according to the US Department of Energy (DOE). While this would seem to be consistent with the recent slowdown in the pace of US economic growth, the build in US petroleum products is not due to a lack of US oil demand, in our view, but is being driven by extremely high crude runs by US refineries. In fact, US oil demand growth remains strong, averaging 563 thousand b/d year-over-year in the last four weeks, and US export demand – particularly for distillate – continues to strengthen and is now approaching the record levels reached in the summer of 2008, when oil topped $145/bbl on the back of strong global distillate demand."
- Chinese oil demand continues to reach new highs "Chinese total petroleum demand reached 9.21 million b/d in June, the highest number on record. China has also imported yet another record amount of crude oil in June, rebounding from relatively weak May levels.
Importantly, while Chinese petroleum demand growth had been primarily driven by demand for so-called other oil products, it is now shifting more towards transportation fuels such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Diesel accounts for almost 40% of Chinese demand growth in June, while motor gasoline accounts for 22%."
- The IEA gives its first look at 2011 supply and demand "The IEA has recently reported its first outlook on 2011 demand and supply, forecasting non-OPEC supply to grow at 300 thousand b/d year-over-year in 2011. In contrast, we expect non-OPEC supply will actually decline by that amount. This difference arises from differing expectations for several
key areas, notable: Norway, Egypt, Azerbaijan, Columbia, Russia and Brazil."
GoldmanSachs Energy Weekly 20100726

Presenting Our New Scenarios and Optimized Portfolios

- "Our new three-month curve and spread scenarios are dominated by a bullflattener,
positing the economy on a trajectory towards a double dip, and a bearish scenario, steepening sharply at the front end, that figures in improved economic data. The other two, more mild, scenarios are also a bear-steepener and a bull-flattener. With the Fed likely to be on hold for an extended period, the curve is anchored at the front end."
- "We recommend our Maxmin portfolio for the next three months. We project it will outperform the BIG Less Credit Index by 0.06–0.07% across our scenarios. Our solutions take advantage of the steep Treasury curve to garner roll-down return. Recognizing tight spreads and a bias towards wider spreads in our scenarios, our portfolios tend to underweight mortgages."
- "We glean the following themes from the analysis of our new scenarios:
• Duration and Curve. Our optimized portfolios tend towards being long duration. With the curve steep, taking advantage of rolldown is a common theme. To that end, the Maxmin portfolio holds large positions in six- and 30-year Treasuries. Nine- and 3.5-year Treasuries are also popular for garnering roll-down return. Overweights in the 30-year part of the curve take advantage of 10s/30s flattening in three of our four scenarios.
• Spread and Convexity. Our Maxmin and hedged portfolios are short spread duration and avoid negative convexity. The portfolios tend to overweight agencies on a market value and spread duration basis –underweight bullets on a spread duration basis but maximally overweight callables. The solutions underweight mortgages on a market value and spread duration basis.
• Maxmin Portfolio Performance. Our previous recommended portfolio, the Maxmin, trailed the index by 0.12% over the period. Being negatively convex and the rally in rates accounted for most of the underperformance. As expected, carry boosted returns."
Citigroup Bond Portfolio Analysis Quarterly 20100721

Market implications of the European stress tests

- "Only 7 of 91 banks failed the European stress tests published by the Committee of the European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) on Friday. While this put into question the severity of the stress tests, the results are close to market expectations based on what has been leaked from the National Supervisors in recent weeks."
- "The amount of disclosure was the positive surprise. Most banks, apart from a few German banks, have released detailed information about their sovereign debt exposure. This may aid the market in differentiating between banks’ risks."
- "However, we do not expect the stress tests to be the big game changer in Europe. With the apparent weakness of the stress tests, financial markets are probably not convinced that the European bank sector as a whole has sufficient capitalisation."
- "In Europe, confidence in the banking sector and in the sustainability of public finances are highly interwoven and in that sense restoration of confidence in peripheral countries in particular will still depend on Europe’s ability to convince the market that a sovereign default is unlikely."
- "The market reaction in US trade Friday evening was slightly positive after some initial jitters. EUR strengthened slightly and European banks traded in the US ADR market gained modestly. As a direct consequence of the release of the stress tests the Bund future lost around 30 cents (around 3-4bp in 10Y yields)."
- "On balance we regard the stress tests as slightly positive, but a significant near-term reduction in the risk premium levied on the single currency appears unlikely. The market impact could be slightly positive for risky assets including peripherals’ government bonds."
DenDanske Research Euroland 20100726

LatAm: sustained growth in activity

- "Economic activity continues to grow, with a surprise from the EMAE (Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity) in Argentina, good data on construction and durable goods in Colombia and Peru, and an increase in credit in Peru and Venezuela. Internal demand is growing in Mexico, although it is still quite slow. In Brazil the Central Bank raised its reference rate but only by 50 basis points instead of the 75 bps expected a few weeks ago, while Argentina and Peru are taking measures to prevent their currencies from strengthening."
- "Financial assets in the region performed well, despite greater global volatility. Although international markets were volatile, financial assets in the region performed well, in general, and reacted to monetary policy measures (Brazil), announcements of currency intervention (Peru), the bond bidding schedule (Chile), and corporate results (Brazil and Mexico)."
BBVA Latin Weekly Observatory 20100723