US: deeper slowdown, but no recession

- "We revise our forecast to reflect a deeper slowdown than previously expected. GDP growth is now anticipated to dip below trend in the coming three quarters."
- "Payrolls will be averaging below 100k for H2. The decline in the unemployment rate will stall and should not resume its gradual fall before 2011."
- "The manufacturing ISM is expected to decline faster than suggested by our fundamental analysis. We expect it to reach 50 by year-end."
- "The risk of outright recession is limited. Our main scenario is that the economy will resume above-trend growth during 2011, but the risk of a more prolonged slowdown has increased."
- "The change in the growth outlook increases the likelihood of further Fed QE, as the central bank will find it hard to accept high and stable unemployment. We postpone Fed hikes to 2012."

DenDanske Research 20100820

No comments:

Post a Comment