EMU strains should not upset global markets

- Overview: "EMU stresses have resurfaced this week. We expect ongoing volatility in spreads but do not anticipate a full-blown crisis. As a result we think the flight to quality reaction and the spike in volatility should reverse."
- US Rates Strategy: "We make a critical evaluation of the recent performance of our 10yr yield valuation framework."
- Euro Rates Strategy: "Belgium is in a far stronger position fundamentally than the peripherals but we think the short term risk is that spreads will continue to widen as the market looks at the risk/reward of being long here."
- Sterling Rates Strategy: "The 10yr Gilt-Bund spread looks out of line with money-market expectations. We recommend a flattener in GBP against a steepener in EUR."
- Global Inflation Strategy: "Total returns for inflation-linked bonds have been surprisingly high in 2010. We expect supply to cap the performance of euro break-evens in the coming weeks. UK break-evens look fundamentally too low."
- APAC Rates Strategy: "We look to enter 7s30s flatteners in JPY."
- "In AUD, target long Dec IB’s at 95.25 and long Dec bills at 95.00. Diverging central bank views also favour AUD/NZD OIS spread wideners."
- Flow Analysis: "Flow data suggestive of waning appetite for fixed income. We saw a sharp fall in demand for US fixed income last week in all maturities. By contrast, demand for Europe held up well with continued duration extension."


No comments:

Post a Comment