In the wake of the crisis, the same factors will be found in the euro zone in the medium term as those which accounted for the appreciation of the German mark in the past

- "The appreciation of the German mark, in the 1980s and the early 1990s before the creation of the euro, was due to three factors: Germany's strong export capacity; the high level of domestic savings; the credibility and conservatism of the central bank which attracted capital."

- "After the 2007-2009 crisis, these factors will be found in the euro zone: export capacity, again mainly thanks to Germany; high level of savings as a result of the halt in borrowing by households (whereas before the crisis, savings in the euro zone were very low due to countries with strong credit growth); rising corporate profits; fiscal deficit reduction; ECB more conservative than the Federal Reserve."

- "It is therefore reasonable to foresee a medium-term trend appreciation of the euro, similar to that of the German mark in the past, even though this is not the trend seen in the short term."

Natixis Flash Economics 429 20100831