Investors rush into AUD on buoyant economic data

- "The latest IMM data cover the week from 31 August to 7 September."
- "Positioning becoming an increasing risk to AUD: The Australian dollar has rallied almost 5% against USD since GDP data published on 1 September showed that the Australian economy re-accelerated during Q2. The strong activity data, combined with further employment growth, have also seen the money market turn from pricing a small probability of a cut to now pricing a full 25bp hike in 12 months. As a result, noncommercial investors have added to AUD longs, which now stand at 44 percent of open interest. Hence, positioning is increasingly becoming a downside risk to AUD."
- "Close to neutral positioning in EUR/USD: With EUR/USD stuck in an approximate 1.26-1.29 range since the middle of August it is little surprise that non-commercial investors have refrained from taking a strong directional view. Net short EUR positions stand at 9.2 percent of open interest, down from 10.6 percent the week prior."
- "Short CAD positions are unwound: After having turned marginally short CAD two weeks ago speculative investors are now once again net long and long positions are likely to have been built further after the Bank of Canada hiked by 25bp the day after the IMM data was collected."

DenDanske IMM Positioning 20100913

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